Climatic factors associated with dengue incidence in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.57260/stc.2026.1452Keywords:
Dengue fever, Climatic factors, Incidence rate ratio, Generalized linear models, Chiang MaiAbstract
This study aimed to analyze the relationship between climatic factors, including rainfall, relative humidity, and temperature, and the monthly incidence of dengue fever in Chiang Mai Province. Secondary monthly data covering 120 months (2015–2024) were used. Generalized Linear Model (GLM) were applied to estimate the Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR). The results indicated that the Negative Binomial regression with two independent variables (NB2) model was the most appropriate, as it effectively addressed overdispersion and yielded the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values. The IRR analysis revealed that relative humidity and temperature were significant predictors of dengue incidence. A 1% increase in relative humidity was associated with a 9–10% increase in dengue cases, while a 1 °C rise in temperature was associated with a 13–17% increase. While rainfall was not found to be statistically significant, it plays a role in creating breeding sites for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating climatic data into risk prediction and public health planning to prevent and control dengue outbreaks in vulnerable regions.
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